Wednesday 28 March 2007

IPO report - Country Garden

IPO report
Country Garden brings largest HK IPO by a Chinese developer By Anette Jönsson 23 March 2007
Hong Kong tycoons flock to the Guangdong-based residential developer which stands out because of its quick asset turnover and affordable prices.
Guangdong-based real estate developer Country Garden is currently pre-marketing what looks set to become the largest initial public offering in Hong Kong this year. At the talked-about deal size it would be more than three times China Agri-Industries’ $410 million offering that tops the 2007 list so far.
It will also be the largest IPO by a Mainland property company ever, exceeding Shui On Land’s $877 million deal (post-shoe) in September last year. Being only the second Chinese real estate company to seek a Hong Kong listing since then, Country Garden will be an interesting test of investor sentiment, coming as it does only days after China raised its benchmark interest rate for the third time in less than a year.
According to market sources, the company is looking to raise around $1.3 billion (HK$10.1 billion) by selling 15% of the company through joint bookrunners Morgan Stanley and UBS.
The smaller-than-usual free-float – the required minimum is otherwise 25% - has been approved by the stock exchange on the basis that the large deal-size will make the stock liquid enough even with 85% of the company in the hands of the controlling shareholder. The exchange normally does not grant this kind of approval unless the deal size exceeds HK$10 billion.
Sources say a portion of the deal will be set aside for financial or corporate investors, however, leaving around $800 million to $900 million to sell to other investors. None of the corporates have been disclosed so far, but most of the Hong Kong property tycoons are said to have expressed an interest. Earlier this week, Henderson Land Development chairman Lee Shau Kee told the local press that he intends to subscribe to HK$1 billion worth of shares and while this hasn’t been confirmed, the sources say there will probably be four or five such investors who could end up buying as much as $500 million to $600 million.“Country Garden isn’t very well known by international investors, but with most of its developments just across the border in Guangdong all the Hong Kong tycoons are aware of it and want a part of it,” one source says. With the Pearl River Delta being home to tens of thousands of Hong Kong-owned factories more and more Hongkongers are also buying homes in this region and Country Garden does advertise its homes in the Hong Kong media.At the low end of the talked about deal-size the company will have a market capitalisation of $8.7 billion, which will rank among the largest of the Mainland developers listed in Hong Kong.In terms of its business, Country Garden has the fourth largest land bank among the Chinese developers behind Shanghai-listed Vanke, Agile Property and Shimao Property. Of the total 18.8 million square metres, a massive 13.3 million sqm (or 71%) is available for future developments, which puts the company in a good position to benefit if property prices continue to rise. Syndicate analysts suggest the existing land bank will sustain the company for about five years, but project it will acquire another five million sqm of land in 2007, which will extend its development horizon to eight years assuming an annual completion rate of three million sqm.
About 4.6 million sqm of the land is currently under development and the company also holds about 900,000 sqm of already completed developments that haven’t yet been sold. More than 90% of its 27 developments are located in the Guangdong province (several in the suburban areas surrounding Guangzhou), making it one of the largest residential developer in this region.
A recent expansion outside its home turf has drawn a mixed response from analysts, who argue on the one hand that it will help sustain the company’s growth strategy which requires continuous acquisition of land, and on the other that it leaves it more exposed to execution risk and higher costs. The company is a pure residential developer that specialises in the development of landscaped village-style residential hubs at the outskirts of cities that provide ample living space and natural greenery. The developments, which are targeted at middle-class home buyers, consists mainly of villas and townhouses with the addition of some low-rise apartment buildings as well as supporting infrastructure such as schools, recreational facilities, club houses and hotels.
One of the selling points of its developments is apparently its licensing agreement with McDonalds, which enables it to put the hamburger chain’s fast-food restaurants into its building complexes.
The homes are popular with the public because the company tends to sell them at affordable prices and doesn’t – like many other developers - deliberately withhold units in anticipation of price increases down the road. Construction is also quite quick at an average 12 months for villas and 18 months for low-rise apartments, which together with the fast selling cycle gives the company a real competitive edge.“Country Garden aims at quick turnover, sometimes at the expense of sub-optimal profit margin, and efficient deployment of the cash to new products. As a result, it achieves a high return on equity while home buyers enjoy almost instant price appreciation after purchase,” syndicate analysts note in a pre-deal report.
This, the report states, is a key reason for the company’s high growth rates over the past few years.The share offer will comprise 2.4 billion new shares, with 10% earmarked for Hong Kong retail investors, plus a 15% greenshoe. As always there is a clawback mechanism that will kick in if the retail tranche is massively oversubscribed, but thanks to a second waiver from the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing the retail portion will be capped at a maximum 20%.Accordingly, if the retail tranche is 15-50 times subscribed the size will increase from the initial 10% to 15%, if the subscription rate is between 50 and 100 times the size will rise to 17.5% of the total and in case it is more than 100 times covered it will go to 20%.The price range won’t be determined until the launch of the official roadshow towards the end of next week, but fund managers say the valuations talked about so far suggest a flat to 20% discount to an end 2007 net asset value. Morgan Stanley estimates this NAV to be about HK$72 billion, while UBS estimates it at HK$64 billion, according to investors. That NAV discount may seem a bit tight in comparison with Agile, which is also based in the Guangdong province and trades at a 30% discount to NAV. However, NAV-based valuations vary widely and a 20% discount would for instance put Country Garden on par with Shimao and Vanke, while a 10% discount would give it a similar valuation to China Greentown. Independent property valuer CB Richard Ellis has estimated Country Garden’s total asset value (on a pre-money basis) at about HK$54 billion ($6.9 billion).Given the company’s strong market position, strong earnings growth and quick asset turnaround it would “probably be reasonable” for Country Garden to trade at a small premium to NAV once the IPO discount has been erased, one banker observes.According to investors, the two bookrunners are taking a slightly different approach in their views on the company with Morgan Stanley focused more on an NAV valuation, while UBS argues that the company’s quick turnaround of land and high earnings growth makes it more appropriate to value it on a P/E basis.Investors say UBS is applying a 14 times multiple to its 2008 net profit estimates of Rmb4.9 billion to Rmb6.3 billion to come up with a fair equity value of HK$70 billion to HK$89 billion. This would rank the company above the average P/E of 10 times among the Hong Kong-listed Mainland developers, but below the current market maximum of 18 times. Agile currently trade at a forward valuation of around 13 times.
Morgan Stanley is said to be applying a PE multiple of 11-17 times 2008, but to be pushing its NAV valuation more strongly.“It’s a trend for analysts to look at Chinese developers on a P/E basis, but if you do that you will have to assume that the company will be able to replenish its land bank at a decent margin,” one sector analyst says. “As sales have been picking up in the past few years, this company has been able to achieve very good earnings, but the thing about property companies is that they are cyclical and there is no way to fix the margin – it can either run away or narrow very quickly.” Given the company’s focus on townhouses and villas and should be quite exposed to recent government measures to reduce the construction of this type of housing in particular. However, people familiar with the company not that these measures are primarily targeted at developments within the city centres, while Country Garden’s developments are all located in the suburbs where land is cheaper and the authorities tend be more flexible in their interpretation of the governments’ austerity measures.
Still, there is always a risk that this could change.
Country Garden is currently 70% owned by 25-year-old Yang Huiyan, who is the daughter of the company’s founder and present chairman,Yeung Kwok Keung. The remainder is owned by four other executive directors. The developer could be coming to market just ahead of another sizeable IPO from China Citic Bank. The Mainland lender is expected to start marketing within the next week or two of a deal that could raise more than $2 billion. China International Capital Corp, Citic Securities, Citigroup, HSBC and Lehman Brothers are joint bookrunners.

Sunday 25 March 2007

一些銀行股份的估計價值

匯豐控股:-
以07年預期PE為12倍及13%每股盈利增長,預期明年值147.53,而現今內值是133.76,以九五折價127.07可買入,但市價已到了137.2.

渣打集團:-
以07年預期PE為14倍及14%每股盈利增長,預期明年值211.62,而現今內值是188.82,以九五折價179.38可買入,但市價已到了224.

恒生銀行:-
以07年預期PE為16倍及5%每股盈利增長,預期明年值105.75,而現今內值是96.48,以九五折價91.65可買入,但市價已到了110.2.

交通銀行:-
以07年預期PE為26倍及25%每股盈利增長,預期明年值8.71,而現今內值是7.66,以九折價6.89可買入,但市價已到了7.94.

招商銀行:-
以06年預期PE為35倍及30%每股盈利增長,預期明年值14.7,而現今內值是13.06,以九折價11.75可買入,但市價已到了16.16.

市場比筆者樂觀.

不受市場氣氛影響的投資法

一, 於GDP處於正數時,定期以月供形式買入指數基金,如看好恒指買2800,H股買2828及A股買2823,它們的成交量都有保證:-

2800於一月至三月份成交金額如下:-
2007/01/31: 1,140,366,284
2007/02/28: 764,019,278
2007/03/23: 975,385,851

2828於一月至三月份成交金額如下:-
2007/01/31: 516,222,012
2007/02/28: 318,453,583
2007/03/23: 329,292,015

2823於一月至三月份成交金額如下:-
2007/01/31: 10,752,903,725
2007/02/28: 7,555,321,906
2007/03/23: 5,444,248,032

二,由於己經與大市同步,所以不急於買入自己選定的公司股份,等到它們當中最超值的股價出現時,把指數基金換到最超值的股份,然後持有,"BUY & HOLD",同時繼續買入指數基金,不理會市場氣氛.

三,繼續持有自己已經買入的公司股份,享受股息收入及復利增長的好處,只能在以下三個理由下賣出股份;1)公司基本因素或質素上有改變,2)股價已經大大脫離應有價值,下跌風險上升,3)有其他明顯更好的投資項目.

四,於經濟轉壞時GDP負數,停供指數基金,保留實力,至於已經買入的公司股份可換入防守性更强的投資項目如保險或民生必需或環球性公司股份,不過要留意風險是否系統性的,不可避免的.

曹仁超說未有一百萬美元的十個理由

一、你浪費太多蚊年追求物質生活上,而冇專注建立自己財富,包括花費太多錢時裝、化妝品、旅行及購買奢侈品上。  
二、你對開支冇預算,例如經常利用信用卡貸款去消費而支付高昂利息,而非等到自己有足夠蚊年時才去消費。  
三、你有壞習慣,包括吸煙、蒲酒吧、賭波、賭馬,耐唔耐去澳門。自己未擁有大量金錢前,早已花掉「種子錢」(Seed money)。  
四、你冇目標,尤其係財富目標。你寧願上網玩遊戲,亦唔學習財富管理。  
五、你冇心理準備。例如六十年代我老曹因為未有資本,所以每天做三份工(除返證券行外,將自己投資心得寫成文章到報館發表賺稿費;從證券行放工後替人家子女補習賺錢)。我老曹最初一萬元資本就係用呢個方法獲得。  
六、你太歡喜炒短線。例如用一萬元去賺三千元,用十萬元去賺一萬元,而不讓利潤往前跑,結果賺係「細」錢,一唔小心卻輸「大」錢。  
七、你以為別人會為你管錢。你可以諮詢許多人意見,但決定權仍你自己手上,別人係唔會為你金錢做決定,因為最後得失係你自己。你損失,別人唔會賠畀你;你賺,亦唔會將利潤50%分畀別人。  
八、你投資自己唔識東西。例如越南股市,我老曹去年雖睇好但冇投資,因為自己不懂。  
九、你怕輸,不明白「止蝕唔止賺」道理。只要心理上準備損失15%投入資金,你已可心安理得地去投資。但太多人寧願將錢存入銀行畀通脹蠶食都唔投資,因為怕輸錢,唔明白「小財唔出,大財唔入」道理。  
十、你根本上冇興趣擁有一百萬美元以上財富。唔少人對賺錢興趣唔大,身上只要有D錢便想辦法花掉,而冇興趣學習錢搵錢。寧願去行街、睇戲、食飯、唱K,連每天睇《信報》都視為苦差,又點可賺得一百萬美元以上財產?你唔理財,財點會理你?

林森池的投資十戒

林森池1969年初己涉足香港股市。1972年受聘於英國維高達證券公司(香港分行),成為“在職受訓”(Trainee)證券分析員,對香港上市的股票進行基礎分析。他的經驗值得參考﹕-

一、 戒短線急攻近利買賣,不要貪圖蠅頭小利。

二、戒被捲入狂潮的洪流,不要被外來不理性的亢奮,令你跟隨潮流作出投資。例如科網泡沫、地產狂潮等都是好例子,2000年買入科網股,或1997年地產高峰時買入住所,你都會很痛苦。最近,澳門賭業概念股急升,亦是活生生的例子。

三、不要被貪婪及無理性恐懼控制投資決定。股市大崩潰時群眾的拋售,一定會導致你產生恐懼。這時候你要克服恐懼,作出人棄我取,購入「千里馬」。

四、戒買新股。 畢非德從不買入新股,這是他的成功要素之一。他作出投資決定前,必須分析公司過往的業績。

五、避開所有衍生工具,林治和畢非德同樣認為政府要取締衍生工具。衍生工具的經營者,就是天空中的獵鷹,無時無刻窺伺你的小雞蛋。

六、戒聽流言或「貼士」,流言會令人疏於學習,不做自己應做的工作,迷失方向,不從事正確的分析。

七、不要過分分散投資。這個世界「千里馬」不多。過分分散投資,會拖低你的投資回報,好的「千里馬」可能三、五隻已經足夠。

八、不要買落後股。落後的馬匹很難有奇?出現再迎頭趕上,公司股價表現落後,背後一定有其原因,你要細加分析,不要有撿便宜的心態。

九、避開他人的「婚禮」。從過往收購合併的經驗中,筆者發覺很多「婚姻」都是悲劇收場,例如盈科收購香港電訊就是最好的例子。1973年置地收購牛奶,至今置地股價仍沒法回復當年水平。

十、戒有「刀仔鋸大樹」的心態。緊記投資是一門嚴肅的工作,並非「六合彩」的賭博。筆者年輕時也有同樣的心態,認為一家小公司能夠順利發展的話,從小到大的增長過程,會比市值大的公司快,這個概念是錯誤的。

理論上,每個行業都會經歷起飛階段,但當一個行業起飛時,並非所有公司都能在起飛階段得益,從事同樣行業的小公司,在經營方面是有意想不到的掣肘,令到他們比大公司落後。例如大公司現金流充足,在重新投資的時候,規模比較大,所以爭取到經濟效益,增長會較快;小型公司除了面對資金的掣肘外,其他方面如內部監管、管理層的誠信、品牌的建立等,所面對的困難會比大公司為多。「細細粒,容易食」的心態是絕對要避免的。

舉例說,八十年代航運業出現困難,包玉剛系的隆豐投資,可以成功轉型收購九倉,因為公司有足夠的規模,得到銀行的支持。另一家大公司和記洋行,1974 年出現財務困難,但由於規模太大,香港不容許這樣大規模的企業倒閉,所以由匯豐銀行接管,最後將控制權賣給長實,成為今天的和黃。同樣情況,今時今日在中國大陸,國務院絕對不容許中國人壽破產。一旦出現的話,其影響太深遠,社會不能承擔。但是上海地產、歐亞農業,都是可以置之不理的公司,可以隨時人間蒸發,也無傷大雅,損失的只是無知的小投資者。2004年10月20日,《亞洲華爾街日報》透露,投資老將林治亦損手於細價股。2003年林治購入一百八十萬股SafeScript Pharmacies Inc.,相當於該公司8%股權。2004年10月,美國證監會向該公司的前管理層提出訴訟,認為管理層曾經誇大營業額與溢利,股價當然應聲下跌,林治亦措手不及,只有認命。管理層的人事關係及誠信,往往是小公司的無法茁壯成長的要素。

市場先生的投資心得

以下是市場先生的投資心得,很多是似曾見過,有與東尼,林森池和巴菲特的心得相同,是價值投資的精髓,值得參考:-

1. 投資第1課要學如何不用止蝕
2. 有大智慧就不要趁勢
3. 價值投資的精髓: 乘人之危
4. 溝落唔溝上, 股價越跌越抵買
5. 股價越升越恐懼, 股價越跌越進取
6. 不要為分散投資而分散投資
7. 以收購者的身份進場, 以經營者的心態持有
8. 人棄我取: 從52週低位股中尋寶
9. 人人恐懼正是貪婪時
10. 看好人民幣升值要買賺人民幣的公司
11. 避開股市變色龍
12. 現金非王: 100%持股有何不可
13. 股息再投資, 享受複利的威力
14. 人人都需要理財(人人都可以財務自由): 儲蓄+投資
15. 誰是你的朋友: 公司盈利或股價走勢
16. 投資鬥EQ不是IQ
17. 成為賺取你最多錢的公司的股東
18. 投資你最熟悉的行業和公司
19. 風險來至投資什麼(對象)而非投資多少(金額)
20. 做一個輕鬆快樂的投資人
21. 人人都應該建立自己的永久組合
22. 以小孩子單純的樣式縱橫股市
23. 投資要遠離報價機
24. 成功投資者要走窄路
25. 不要將信心建築在股價上升之上
26. 長線投資者像園丁

Saturday 17 March 2007

財富

財富可分為兩類,"有形" 與 "無形"。"有形財富" 包括物業,金錢, 股票同基金; 而 "無形財富",其實更為重要,即包括財商(FQ)、EQ、耐性同經驗。 一般人如果缺乏 "有形財富", 只需要學習如何提升自己的 "無形財富" ,以便累積 "有形財富"。累積過程需要頗長時間,所以時間是我們的 "朋友"。
相反空有 "有形財富" 而缺乏"無形財富",可能連原來擁有的財富都會失去。

Sunday 4 March 2007

九型人格 (二)

昨日到一間樓上書局,睇有關九型人格的書,有以下記錄:
九型中沒有最好或最壞,每個人都會屬於其中一個類型,不會改變,只會走向其他兩個類型,在安定時會變成另一類型,在壓力下亦變成另一類型.次序為:
1->7->5->8->2->4->1,例如屬於5號性格的人在安定時會變成有8號性格,來補足原有性格的不足,在受壓時變成有7號性格。
另一次序為:
9->3->6->9

Saturday 3 March 2007

九型人格

今日如常地在上班途中看都市日報,看到一篇叫"焦點"的副刊講九型人格,非常有趣:

細說九型人格

人人有一格,你屬哪一格?早在二千多年前,有哲學家已歸納了,其中九種最常見性格形態,創立了九型人格學說,到六十年代由美國一批心理學家整合推廣。九種不同的人性特質,原來同時都會出現在一個人身上,但其中一種會主導我們的性格。心理學的性格分類有很多種,多數以人的思考和行為模式分類,而九型人格ENNEAGRAM,就着重人的內在動機。

經常批判自己和別人的錯誤,看事物常常覺得不夠完美
1號的人喜歡規矩和原則,要求很高,甚至會吹毛求疵;但他們勇於承擔責任,想改革一切不完美的事。

直覺地看到別人的需要,卻很少表達自己的需要
2號性格最渴望被愛,他們會處處幫助人,在別人的讚賞中,找到被愛的感覺,他們的佔有慾亦很強,不自覺地喜歡控制別人。

做每一件事,都是為獲得他人的讚美和掌聲
3號性格渴望成就,喜歡競爭及比較,善於觸摸別人心意,變成對方想要的形象,但因為太在意別人看法,很多時會迷失自己。

對某件事有深刻感受,就會沉溺在那種情緒,不斷回味箇中感受
4號的人渴望與眾不同,他們多愁善感,經常覺得孤獨;很想尋覓自己的身份,愛情和美感對他們很重要。

善於分析,喜愛尋根究底,強調思想重於行為
5號看這個世界是充滿奧秘,他們最喜歡遠離人群,觀察和解構事物,不怕孤獨,亦不喜歡有情緒。

憂心事情會出錯,經常預備好應變計劃,以防問題真的發生
6號的人很易憂心和敏感,危機意識很強,會作最壞的打算,最好的準備,亦很忠於自己的團隊和親人。

覺得這世界,充滿刺激好玩的東西,要讓自己生命充滿樂趣
7號的人追求的是快樂,他們喜歡新鮮和創意,最怕沉悶和規範,遇到痛苦會盡量逃避。

有強勢外表,有意無意給人壓迫感,內在脆弱卻不為人知
8號性格的人,核心的渴望是成為強者,帶領和保護身邊的人,他們愛恨分明,坦白直接,討厭別人軟弱。

會自動融入別人的喜悅?,若有情緒衝突,會感到很痛苦
9號性格是和平主義者,他們對很多事也無所謂,容易受環境影響,比較優柔寡斷,但很懂得欣賞和包容別人。

看完後就發現,自己和自己身邊的人的性格,真與其中些性格非常相似,有趣!