股市诗语

火窑

又是一天，
又是…，
股民期待的一天；
中行说…，
我忍不住了…，
工行喊…，
我不能再忍了！
平安人寿齐吼道…，
再忍下去就熊了；
蓝筹静静的倾听着，
倾听着二行二险的呼唤…
轻轻的细语了一句：
没人叫你们忍！
绩差、
假题材、
ST、
惊恐能齐声叫…
不好了，
大象要跳舞了；
大盘听到了，
狂挥着手欢呼着…
我又要长高了、我又要长高了…
火窑说话了，
你们涨吧！
我防守！
基金说话了，
再不涨！
季报就不好做了！
私募说话了，
涨就涨！
谁怕谁！
人民币发出了，
发出了一声低沉的呓语：
出来混，
迟早要还的……

翻雲覆雨設局挖坑 投資者小心替別人高位接盤

證券日報　袁元

　　資產注入 小心真經念歪

　　近來的股市上，可真的說得上是熱鬧非常。而尤為引人注目的，則是在近年來一直被市場所唾棄的垃圾股來了個"鹹魚大翻身"。望著一個個坐上火箭騰空駕霧趾高氣揚的垃圾股，不禁使得剛剛領悟到"價值投資"理念真諦的投資者頓生感慨：到底是我們改變了股市，還是股市改變了我們。

　　據有關資料統計資料表明，僅僅就在上周，有100多隻個股創出了一年來的歷史新高，其中絕大部分是低價股。很多低價股在短短的一個月時間裏，股價上漲了 50%以上。目前，市場上3元以下個股已經被徹底消滅。更令人瞠目結舌的是，在已經幾乎被所有投資者遺忘的三板市場上，近來也是漲勢如虹，很多三板上的股票出現了只有買盤沒有賣盤的奇觀，有的股票一拉就是十來個漲停板，簡直就像是一匹脫韁的野馬闖入了無人之境。

　　在低價股和垃圾股橫衝直撞的背後，高高聳立著兩面大旗，其中一面上繡的是"資產注入"，另一面上繡的則是"業績預增"。正是在這兩面光彩奪目的大旗照耀下，低價股才能一飛沖天，而臥槽其中的機構莊家則是張開了血盆大口，利用上市公司資訊披露上的不對稱，翻手為雲，覆手為雨，把中小投資者的血汗錢鯨吞於腹中。

　　資產注入，這個"看上去很美"的專業術語，是隨著我國上市公司股改的逐步深化而逐步流行起來的。其本意是上市公司的控股股東把自家的最優質的資產注入到上市公司裏面去，以有效改善上市公司的資產品質，進而提高上市公司的盈利能力與股價，從而達到控股股東與流通股股東"雙贏"的目的。例如，雲南銅業集團把自家的銅礦山資產注入到上市公司雲南銅業裏邊，使得雲南銅業的盈利能力發生了翻天覆地的變化，也促使雲南銅業的股價一路走高。而寶鋼集團的整體上市，則使得我國投資者可以分享到我國鋼鐵生產第一巨頭的超額利潤。

　　資產注入帶來的業績與股價齊飛的良好示範性，使得更多的投資者對具備資產注入題材的上市公司趨之若鶩。特別是對具備央企背景的上市公司，其股價稍有一點點風吹草動，滿市場便是資產注入的謠傳紛飛。傳言最為囂張之時，一天之內竟有7家上市公司公告澄清其並無整體上市或資產注入之事。一時間，不論是市場內的大小機構，還是廣大中小投資者，一個個是八仙過海，各顯神通，紛紛是削尖了腦袋四處打探上市公司的消息動向，以便及早抱上資產注入這個能下金蛋的胖娃娃。

　　天下熙熙，皆為利來，天下攘攘，皆為利往。資產注入這棵渾身放射著金光的大樹，也自然而然地引起了場內資本的關注。特別是對那些前幾年深陷熊市泥沼不能自拔的私募資金而言，由於其所持有的股票大多是低價股或是垃圾股，在2005-2006年的大牛市里，這些股票由於缺乏投資價值而不被市場主流資金如基金所看好，造成其股價漲幅甚微，私募資金無法從其中安全獲利而出。在這種背景下，私募資金要想從低價股或垃圾股中全身而退，不得不走"設局"或是"挖坑"的老路。

　　恰恰就在此時，有著央企背景的上市公司或是資產注入，或是整體上市，在市場上得到了主流資金和投資者的高度認可。資產注入，這個本來看上去與低價股或垃圾股沒什麼緣分的新概念，成了私募資金操盤人眼中的一根救命稻草。

　　既然績優類上市公司可以借助資產注入攀上百元股價的新高峰，那麼只要玩好"資產注入"這盤棋，低價股的股價也能借此翻上幾個跟頭。現在的關鍵就在於怎麼布好低價股"資產注入"這盤棋局。

　　長期沉浸于股市的投資者都知道，低價股之所以低價，主要是因為其資產品質太差。而其控股股東也因為缺乏足夠的實力，對上市公司愛莫能助。在這種狀況下，要想玩好"資產注入"這步棋，還真的好好花一番心思才行。

　　一是娶新驅舊。由來聞得新人笑，有誰聽到舊人哭。從資本逐利的本性出發，對於低價股那些原有的控股股東而言，找一個有錢或是有題材的新東家取而代之是最為常用的方法，而且只要是市場上喜歡的題材就先不分青紅皂白地裝進去再說。例如去年以來礦產資源類的資產注入最受市場投資者的喜愛，山東的一家上市公司通過把虧損資產置換出來和把鐵礦資產的注入，股價自去年底起在短短的三個月內翻了一番，涉足其中的資本賺的是眉開眼笑。可當愛打破砂鍋問到底的投資者對該公司注入的資產細一思量，卻發現其礦產資源可采量維持不了幾年。不過當注入的礦產資源竭盡時，這些"玩一把就走"的遊資也早就開溜啦，沒准正坐在屋裏數錢呢。

　　二是大玩"莫須有"的遊戲。這裏面玩得最好的當屬炒作杭蕭鋼構的機構啦。機構嫌單玩"資產注入"還不夠過癮，乾脆製造出一個在安哥拉接到一個300多億元項目大單的故事。促使杭蕭鋼構一連拉出了10個漲停板，創造出中國主板市場上又一個新紀錄。不過，再大的牛皮也有吹破的時候，凡事過則不及。這不，機構到手的利潤還沒搬回家，就被證監會抓了個現行。

　　三是偷天換日。為了攀上"資產注入"這棵大樹，遊資們是有資產要往上市公司裏面裝，沒有資產創造虛擬資產也要往裏面裝。利用如今便利的互聯網，遊資們雇了一些槍手在網上四處煽風點火，一會說這個公司有優質資產要注入，一會說那個公司要整體上市，撓的投資者心裏直癢癢。並借機在二級市場上興風作浪，總之就是一個目的，那就是"騙你沒商量"。遊資們打著"消滅 3元股"的大旗，在"資產注入"的幌子下，把那些扭虧無望的老垃圾公司策劃包裝為一個清純秀麗的新可人招搖過市，趁機把看客們的腰包洗了個精光。

　　從國際金融資本市場的發展歷程上來看，"資產注入"本來是上市公司通過優質資產的注入做大作強的手段，可當它被引進到中國證券市場才一年多的光景，在遊資的軟硬誘導下，這本原本用於發展我國證券市場的"真經"正在被念歪。投資者，可要睜大你們的眼睛，學會孫悟空的火眼金睛辨妖術，讓那些"假注入、真斂財"的機構們無處遁形。 　

在三千中放松自己，在三千中回味过去……

一首博客火窑寫的詩:

大盘上三千了，
我买入了一只奥运题材股票，
后市还会继续买入其它奥运题材股票。
大盘上三千了，
我买入了一只世博题材股票，
后市还会继续买入其它世博题材股票。
大盘上三千了，
我买入了一只整体上市概念股票，
后市还会继续买入其它整体上市概念股票。
大盘上三千了，
我买入了一只实质优质资产注入股票，
后市还会继续买入其它实质优质资产注入股票。
大盘上三千了，
我买入了一只借壳上市的股票，
后市还会继续买入其它借壳上市的股票。
大盘上三千了，
我买入了一只高送转的股票，
后市还会继续买入其它高送转的股票。
大盘上三千了，
三千是头部中继还是上升中继？
大盘上三千了，
三千肯定有人看多有人看空就象一千时也有人看多有人看空；
大盘上三千了，
三千大盘想上容易要跌也容易；
大盘上三千了，
三千里有钻石也有垃圾；
大盘上三千了，
三千中的操作就象一千点操作一样；
三千上了还会下，
三千下了还要上，
在三千中放松自己，
在三千中回味过去……

IPO report - China Citic Bank

China Citic Bank to list in Hong Kong and Shanghai
By Anette Jönsson 3 April 2007
Sources suggest the Chinese lender may raise more than $4 billion from the dual listing with a small portion going to cornerstone investors.

It isn’t the first and certainly not the largest, but the upcoming listing of China Citic Bank could provide a genuine test of investor appetite for Chinese financial stocks and indeed for the country’s growth story.

So far, the Mainland banks that have listed in Hong Kong have all been either one size bigger than the previous one that came to market or – in the case of China Merchants Bank - the first private sector lender to seek an offshore listing. Citic Bank is neither and some investors say this means it will have to rely a lot more on an attractive valuation to get the deal done.

Several bankers close to the lender disagree, however, and argue that Citic Bank, which is the country’s seventh largest commercial bank with total assets of Rmb706 billion ($91 billion) and 446 branches has enough clout on its own to draw in the buyers. It is widely regarded as a private sector bank even though its parent company has links to the central government, and will be only the second such bank to list in Hong Kong.

The key selling points include a leading corporate banking franchise; the fact that it is one of the fastest growing national banks with a high penetration in China’s affluent eastern coastal regions; and its position as one of the most profitable national banks in China judged by its average pre-tax return on assets of 1.2% in 2006. It also has one of the lowest cost-to-income ratios among the national banks at 51.6%.

Citic is also expected to benefit from being part of the Citic Group, which is the third largest enterprise in China and a significant player within the financial space generally. The parent also has a wider national footprint than the China Merchants Group, which includes China Merchants Bank, suggesting its group-related growth possibilities are larger.

On top of that, the deal is likely to tap into the huge amount of liquidity looking for China exposure.

“Banks are the epitome of a macro-play and I would argue that there is a lot more money chasing after the China macro story than there is bank paper, even if you include the likes of ICBC,” says one observer. Given the run-up in the share prices of other Mainland banks since their listings, investors should be keen to pick up newcomers at an IPO discount, he adds.

“After ICBC and China Merchants bank, people were saying that the market had had enough of these macro stories, and argued that the banks would need to differentiate themselves as portfolio managers were only going to own two,” adds a banker close to the deal. “But the more I look at this, I think Citic is another play on China’s macro story. It has some good angles to it, but the China macro story is still very alive in the equities market if you talk to investors.”

The Beijing-based bank yesterday (April 2) passed the final hurdle for a dual listing in Hong Kong and Shanghai when the Mainland regulators approved the A-share portion of the deal and is now set to launch what will become the largest Hong Kong IPO since Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s massive $21.9 billion offering in October last year.

Market talk suggests Citic Bank could raise more than $4 billion from the combined H- and A-share offering, including shares that will be issued to its two strategic investors – Spanish lender Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria and the group’s Hong Kong-listed bank holding company Citic International Financial Holdings - as they exercise their anti-dilution options. BBVA currently owns 4.8% of the company, while CIFH has a 15.2% stake.

The H-share offer, which is available to international investors, will comprise 3.45 billion new shares or 9% of the bank plus approximately another 1.5 billion shares that will go to BBVA and CIFH, resulting in a total 12.9% of the company being sold in the form of H-shares. There will also be a greenshoe, which is expected to account for about 15% of the total H-share offering. If so (the final size has yet to be determined, according to people in the know) it would lift the portion of the company held by H-shareholders and BBVA combined to 14.8%.

In addition, the company will sell 2.3 billion new A-shares, corresponding to 6% of the company, to domestic Chinese investors. According to sources familiar with the offering, there will be no greenshoe for the A-share portion of the deal.

Pre-greenshoe and excluding the shares to be taken up by BBVA and CIFH, the H-share sale will account for 60% of the offering, or around $2 billion, while the A-share portion will account for 40%.

While the percentages are pretty much fixed by now, the dollar amounts can still change as the company and its five joint bookrunners have yet to decide on what valuation to use. An indicative price range will be set before Citic Bank launches the official roadshow just after the Easter Holidays on April 10.

According to investors, post listing it would be reasonable for Citic Bank to trade at a discount to China Merchants Bank, which is more profitable and is also benefiting from an early mover advantage within the retail banking and wealth management business, but at a premium to the big state-owned banks on the basis of the private banks being more nimble and having greater growth potential. However, investors say there is still a question about how much Citic Bank will leave on the table in the form of an IPO discount.

China Merchants’ H-shares currently trade at a 2007 price to book multiple of about 3.8 times, while ICBC trades at 2.8 times and Bank of China at 2.1 times. Bank of Communications, which is also state-owned but supported by the fact that HSBC holds a 20% stake, trades at about 3.5 times expected book value.

One of the challenges for the bookrunners will be to set the price range at a level that also accounts to some extent for the fact that the A-shares of the listed Mainland banks trade at significant premiums to the H-shares - ranging from 16% for China Merchants Bank (whose A-shares trades at 2007 P/B multiple of 4.4 times) to 28.6% for ICBC and 45% for BOC.

As such, it is highly likely that Citic Bank’s IPO price will look like a bargain for A-share investors and end up attract large numbers of speculative buyers, resulting in reduced allocations for everyone. However, sources say the price range will be the same for both the H- and A-share tranches (adjusted for the exchange rate), and will be set in relation to the valuations in the H-share market.

“I’m sure the banks on the H-share deal will be under quite a lot of pressure to maximise valuation because the H-share deal will be a lag on pricing,” one observer notes.

Five percent of the H-share offering of 3.45 billion shares will be earmarked for Hong Kong retail investors initially, although this could increase to 20% if a full clawback is triggered. Most of the remaining 95% will be offered to institutional investors, but a portion will also be set aside for three to five cornerstone investors, according to sources.

These will consist primarily of financial institutions, some of which were said to have been in discussions with Citic Bank about buying a strategic stake back when BBVA was invited aboard. The list of names is still being finalised, the sources say, but together they are expected to take up around 10% of the H-share offering.

These guys aside, one banker says this deal is still noticeable for the absence of a “tycoon tranche”, which has become almost a rule on large Mainland IPOs these days. While such pre-agreed orders can be helpful in terms of building confidence in a deal early in the roadshow, oftentimes they do also result in a significantly reduced allocation for other institutional investors – especially when there is a full clawback that cuts the institutional trance to 50%

A portion of the A-share offering will also go to cornerstones, sources say.

Between 2004 and 2006, Citic Bank achieved a compound annual growth rate of 19.4% for total assets, 22.9% for total loans, 19.2% for total deposits and 26.1% for net profit. The latter increased to Rmb3.9 billion ($505 million) in 2006.

The growth is however coming from a low base and the bank is still catching up on fee-income oriented businesses such as retail banking and wealth management which are typically regarded as key growth areas, notes one specialist. For now, its real strength continues to lie in its corporate banking franchise, which generated 79% of its income last year, but the retail side of the business does have “hidden potential,” he says.

The bank has reduced its non-performing loan ratio to 2.5% at the end of last year from 6.3% two years earlier. The bank did, however, receive capital injections totalling Rmb7.4 billion from Citic Group and CIFH on two occasions last year as it prepared for the stock market listing.

In 2005 it recorded a pre-tax profit per employee of Rmb520,000 ($67,350), which, according to a pre-listing information pack published by the bank, put it ahead of all other Mainland banks listed in Hong Kong or China. The pre-tax profit per head increased to Rmb620,000 in 2006.

Citic Securities, China International Capital Corp, Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and HSBC are joint bookrunners for the H-share portion of the offering. The trading debut is currently expected to take place on April 27.

Copyright FinanceAsia.com Ltd., a subsidiary of Haymarket Media Ltd